Eight of the ten windows leaned down, then the most one-sided gold week on the record, and all five half hours went to the lower rail

The week at a glance

Every number here is transcribed from the capture of that window. Times are read off the 5-minute bars, so an outcome time is the bar in which the rail was crossed.

Regime is the table's tag, which measures this box against the whole history; the tag printed on the box itself measures it against the last five sessions, so the two legitimately differ. They are the same three buckets named twice, compressed against accumulation, expanded against expansion, normal against normal. Six of this week's ten boxes land in different buckets on the two rulers and four agree, and Wednesday's hour is the sharpest case: 33.4 points, normal against the whole history and expanding against the last five sessions. Mult is an output of the table's regime, never a setting, and every window here reads auto. The seven compressed boxes drew a full multiple, the two normal ones a half and the one expanded box, Friday's half hour, a quarter, which is why its 22.3 point box carries a 5.6 point target. Nothing was touched between any two windows. The three-way shares do not all sum to 100, because each is rounded to a whole percent: Monday's half hour and Thursday's hour sum to 101, Monday's hour to 99. Charts are 5-minute, so an outcome time is the bar in which the rail was crossed and is good to the bar; the session close is the 16:55 ET bar on all five days. The tick and cross in the outcome column mark whether the favoured rail was the one that went, for calls and abstains alike; only the six Atlas rows count towards the Atlas score. Tuesday's half hour reached its lower rail first and its upper rail three hours and twenty-five minutes later; only the first is scored. Friday's two hits are one bar, 10:00, the first after the hour's box.

Morning by morning

The 30 minute window on the left, the 60 minute on the right. Click any chart to enlarge.

Monday 21 September

Two windows leaning opposite ways, and one 10:00 bar settled the half hour and stopped 1.7 points short of the hour

30m abstained and the other rail landed · 60m abstained, no target hit

The two windows leaned opposite ways and neither would call it. The half hour read 43 / 34 / 24 from 301 sessions, 76 percent of comparable sessions resolved, but the up side was only 56 percent of the decided share against a 62 percent gate, so it abstained with the up side as the larger share. The hour read 8 / 35 / 56 from 203 sessions: 81 percent of the decided share, well clear of the direction gate, and only 44 percent decided against a 50 percent gate, so it abstained the other way round. That hour is the same cell Friday 18 September's hour drew, one session earlier, and it reached nothing then as well.

Both boxes share a ceiling at 4407.9, printed on the 09:25 bar. The half hour's floor is the opening bar's low at 4393.6; the hour kept falling to 4383.4 on the 09:55 bar, so the hour is the wider box at 24.5 points against 14.3, and at a full multiple its lower rail sits 20.4 points below the half hour's.

The 10:00 bar, the first after the hour's box closed, ran from 4385.0 down to 4363.1 and took the half hour's lower rail at 4379.30 against its lean. The next bar, 10:05, put in the session low of 4360.6, which is 1.7 points above the hour's lower rail at 4358.90, and price never went back. It recovered to 4395.9 on the 12:15 bar and closed the 16:55 bar at 4381.4, inside the hour's rails all afternoon. The half hour's cell, 43 / 34 / 24 out of 301, has now drawn four times on this record, all four abstaining, and the upper rail went twice and the lower rail twice.

• 30m box14.3 pt · compressed
• 60m box24.5 pt · compressed
• 30m three-way43 / 34 / 24
• 60m three-way8 / 35 / 56
• 30m modeabstain, direction gate at 56
• 60m modeabstain, decided gate at 44
• Outcome30m down rail 10:00 · 60m no target
• Durationsdisagreed

Tuesday 22 September

The half hour took its rail by 0.9 of a point, the hour missed the same side by 4.1 and went the other way at 15:30, five and a half hours after the box closed

30m Atlas mode ✓ · 60m abstained and the other rail landed

Both windows leaned down and the shares told the two labels different things. The half hour read 23 / 50 / 27 from 258 sessions, 68 percent of the decided share and 73 percent of comparable sessions resolved, clear of both gates, so it fired short with a 13.9 point target. The hour read 13 / 28 / 59 from a different 258 sessions: the same 68 percent of the decided share, but only 41 percent decided against a 50 percent gate, so it abstained with the down side as the larger share. Same lean, same direction reading, one call and one silence.

The 10:40 bar settled the half hour and nearly settled the hour. Its low of 4351.9 is 0.9 of a point through the half hour's lower rail at 4352.80, which is the Atlas hit, and 4.1 points above the hour's lower rail at 4347.80, which is nothing. The scorer records a rail as reached or not, so the half hour is a hit and the hour at that moment was unresolved. From there price climbed for the rest of the session.

The hour's upper rail at 4399.40 went on the 15:30 bar, on a high of 4408.7, five hours and thirty minutes after the box closed and against the larger share, the slowest resolution of the week. The half hour's upper rail at 4394.50 had already gone on the 14:05 bar, three hours and twenty-five minutes after its lower rail, and only the first rail is scored, so the half hour stays a hit. The hour's cell, 13 / 28 / 59 out of 258, has drawn three times here, abstaining each time; the upper rail went on 21 August, the lower on 24 August and the upper again today.

• 30m box13.9 pt · compressed
• 60m box17.2 pt · compressed
• 30m three-way23 / 50 / 27
• 60m three-way13 / 28 / 59
• 30m modeAtlas, short
• 60m modeabstain, decided gate at 41
• Outcome30m down rail 10:40 · 60m up rail 15:30
• Durationsagreed

Wednesday 23 September

Atlas mode called both windows in opposite directions, and the half hour was crossed on the bar that set the hour's floor

30m Atlas mode ✗ · 60m Atlas mode, no target hit

Both windows cleared both gates and they called opposite directions. The half hour read 46 / 24 / 30 from 226 sessions, 65 percent of the decided share and 71 percent resolved, and fired long. The hour read 13 / 53 / 34 from 203 sessions, 80 percent of the decided share and 66 percent resolved, and fired short. Two calls from two windows on one morning, pointing away from each other, is what happens when the box grows by 18.4 points between 09:30 and 10:00 and the tables are read from different cells.

The half hour's box ran 4334.5 to 4349.5 and the 09:45 bar, fifteen minutes after it closed, dropped to 4317.1 through the lower rail at 4319.50, against the long call. That is the fastest half-hour resolution of the week and the one Atlas call of the week that was crossed. The same 09:45 bar is also the low of the hour's box, so the bar that resolved the half hour against its call is the bar that set the floor the hour's short was measured from. The half hour's cell, 46 / 24 / 30 out of 226, is the only one of the ten this week that had not drawn on this record before.

The hour's box, at 33.4 points, is the widest of the week, normal on the table's ruler and expanding against the last five sessions, so it drew a half multiple and a 16.7 point target. Price then went nowhere: the post-box high was 4335.1 on the 10:50 bar and the low 4310.7 on the 13:40 bar, 10.3 points above the lower rail at 4300.40, the furthest miss of the three unresolved hours. The cell, 13 / 53 / 34 out of 203, is the most-drawn cell on the gold record, six times now and short every time: hits on 13 August, 28 August and this Friday, a miss on 10 August, and nothing on 31 August or today.

• 30m box15.0 pt · compressed
• 60m box33.4 pt · normal
• 30m three-way46 / 24 / 30
• 60m three-way13 / 53 / 34
• 30m modeAtlas, long
• 60m modeAtlas, short
• Outcome30m down rail 09:45 · 60m no target
• Durationsdisagreed

Thursday 24 September

Both windows leaned down, the half hour cleared its rail by 0.2 of a point and the hour stopped 0.9 short of its own

30m Atlas mode ✓ · 60m abstained, no target hit

The half hour drew 23 / 50 / 27 from 258 sessions, the cell Tuesday's half hour drew, out of the same sample, two days earlier. It fired short both times with the direction at 68 and the decided share at 73, and the lower rail went both times. On Thursday it went on the 09:55 bar, twenty-five minutes after the box closed, on a low of 4299.5 against a rail at 4299.70. Two tenths of a point. The scorer does not measure by how much, and neither does the indicator.

The same 09:55 bar set the hour's box low, so the hour's 20.8 point box runs 4299.5 to 4320.3 and its lower rail, at a full multiple, sits at 4278.70, a full 21 points below the half hour's. The hour read 12 / 31 / 58 from 320 sessions: 73 percent of the decided share, clear of the direction gate, but 42 percent decided against 50, so it abstained with the down side as the larger share. Those three shares print as 101 because each is rounded to a whole percent. The cell drew once before, on Wednesday 16 September's hour, where it abstained the same way and the lower rail went.

Price walked down for an hour and ten minutes after the box closed and the 11:10 bar put in the session low of 4279.6, 0.9 of a point above the hour's lower rail at 4278.70. It then recovered to 4324.0 on the 12:15 bar, above the box high of 4320.3 but inside the rails, and stayed between the rails to the close. That is the second time this week an unresolved hour stopped under two points from its lower rail, after Monday's 1.7, and it is scored the same way as a miss by fifty points, because it is one.

• 30m box10.3 pt · compressed
• 60m box20.8 pt · compressed
• 30m three-way23 / 50 / 27
• 60m three-way12 / 31 / 58
• 30m modeAtlas, short
• 60m modeabstain, decided gate at 42
• Outcome30m down rail 09:55 · 60m no target
• Durationsagreed

Friday 25 September

One 10:00 bar, two Atlas shorts, and the smallest target the gold record carries

30m Atlas mode ✓ · 60m Atlas mode ✓

The half hour read 17 / 81 / 2 from 215 sessions. The 81 percent down share equals the largest stated favourite the gold tables have printed on this record, a figure reached four times before, and the 2 percent unresolved branch equals the smallest. It fired short at 83 percent of the decided share and 98 percent resolved. The box was 22.3 points, expanded on both rulers against a 13.4 point five session average, so Auto drew a quarter multiple and the target came out at 5.6 points, which is 5.575 before the table rounds it, the smallest target on the gold record ahead of the 6.0 on 26 August. The same cell drew once before, on Tuesday 25 August, fired short and the upper rail went. Today the lower one did.

The hour read 13 / 53 / 34 from 203 sessions, the cell Wednesday's hour drew, and fired short the same way with the direction at 80 and the decided share at 66. Its 26.8 point box is normal on both rulers, so the multiple is a half and the target 13.4 points, with the lower rail at 4295.00.

The 10:00 bar did both. It is the first bar after the hour's box closed and the seventh after the half hour's, and it ran from 4313.3 down to 4292.5, through the half hour's lower rail near 4307.3 and through the hour's at 4295.00 in one move. Two Atlas hits, one bar, and the hour's is the quickest resolution a 60 minute window can have. Price went on to 4289.1 on the 10:05 bar and later back up to 4336.0 on the 12:05 bar, above the box high but 12.6 points short of the hour's upper rail at 4348.60, so neither window reached a second rail. Both durations leaned down, called down and were paid on the same bar, which is what agreement looks like when it happens, and it happened on one Friday.

• 30m box22.3 pt · expanded
• 60m box26.8 pt · normal
• 30m three-way17 / 81 / 2
• 60m three-way13 / 53 / 34
• 30m modeAtlas, short
• 60m modeAtlas, short
• Outcome30m down rail 10:00 · 60m down rail 10:00
• Durationsagreed

What the week actually showed

• Eight of the ten windows leaned down, then the most one-sided week on the gold record. The previous high was seven, on three separate weeks, and all three leaned up. Every one of the five hours favoured the down side, the first time one duration has leaned the same way on all five mornings here, and only Monday's and Wednesday's half hours leaned up. Every half hour then reached its lower rail, also a first, including the two that leaned the other way. The mean stated favourite across the ten was 47, against the 49 the record averages. None of that is a property of the indicator; it is a description of five sessions in which gold mostly went down in the morning.
• Six windows fired and four of the five that resolved were paid. Five of the six calls were short and one, Wednesday's half hour, was long. Tuesday's, Thursday's and Friday's half hours and Friday's hour took their lower rails; Wednesday's half hour was crossed on the 09:45 bar; Wednesday's hour reached nothing. Six calls is not a record, the week of 31 August fired eight, and four hits equals the week of 10 August rather than beating it. The four abstains split by cause: Monday's half hour on the direction gate at 56 percent of the decided share, and Monday's, Tuesday's and Thursday's hours on the decided gate at 44, 41 and 42 percent resolved.
• Seven of ten reached a rail, and all three that reached nothing were hours. Monday's, Wednesday's and Thursday's 60 minute windows were unresolved at the 16:55 bar, and every half hour on the week resolved, the fastest of the half hours on Wednesday's 09:45 bar, fifteen minutes after the box closed, and the slowest of the ten on Tuesday's hour at 15:30, five and a half hours after its box closed. Friday's hour was the quickest of all, resolved on the first bar after its box. Three of the five hours' lower rails were missed by under five points and the scorer credits none of them: Monday's by 1.7 on the 10:05 bar, Thursday's by 0.9 on the 11:10 bar, and Tuesday's by 4.1 on the 10:40 bar before its upper rail went at 15:30. Seven of ten is the same count as last week; three weeks came in at nine, one at eight and one at five.
• Nine of the ten cells had drawn before, the most of any week here. The previous high was four. Two repeated inside the week: Tuesday's and Thursday's half hours are one cell, 23 / 50 / 27 out of 258, and both fired short into a lower rail that went, as it did on 18 August and did not on 20 August; Wednesday's and Friday's hours are 13 / 53 / 34 out of 203, the most-drawn cell on the gold record at six, short every time, with three hits, one miss and two unresolved. Monday's hour is Friday 18 September's hour, 8 / 35 / 56 out of 203, drawn on consecutive sessions and resolving nothing both times. Thursday's hour is Wednesday 16 September's, 12 / 31 / 58 out of 320, which took its lower rail then and stopped 0.9 short now. Friday's half hour is Tuesday 25 August's, 17 / 81 / 2 out of 215, which fired short into the upper rail then and the lower rail now. The only new cell was Wednesday's half hour, 46 / 24 / 30 out of 226, and it was the one call of the week that was crossed. A cell drawn twice with opposite outcomes is what a stated share looks like when it is a frequency and not a forecast.
• Friday's half hour carried the smallest target on the record. A 22.3 point box, expanded on both rulers against a 13.4 point five session average, drew a quarter multiple and a target of 5.6 points, 5.575 before rounding, below the 6.0 of 26 August. Its 81 percent down share equals the largest stated favourite the gold tables have printed here, on a cell whose only earlier draw was crossed. The 10:00 bar ran 20.8 points and took that rail and the hour's 13.4 point rail together, so a quarter multiple and a half multiple resolved on the same bar. A smaller target is reached more often by construction; it is not a stronger result.
• Seventy windows over seven weeks: fifty-four reached a rail, the favoured rail won thirty-four of those, Atlas mode fired thirty-six times and was right on twenty of the twenty-nine that resolved. These are published because the record has to accumulate somewhere, and seventy races remain far too few to mean anything. The place to judge calibration is still the indicator's own realised versus expected rows, which this week ran 68% to 72% against a 66% to 70% expectation on the general hit rate, every z between 0.0 and +0.6, and 65% to 76% against a 72% to 74% expectation on the Atlas rate, every z between -0.9 and +0.5.
• Gold and the index book leaned the same way this week and were read very differently. On the same five mornings the NQ tables fired Atlas mode on nine of their ten windows; the gold tables fired on six. Two instruments, two window times, five sessions and ten windows each, and the only thing that follows from it is that the gates were reading different tables. It is recorded because both pages are published from the same week.