Week commencing Monday 28 September 2026

At a glance

Every window that appeared, in the order the indicator produced them.

▲ / ▼ / ∅ are the measured shares of comparable historical windows in which the upper target was reached first, the lower target was reached first, or neither was reached by the session close; n is how many such windows sit behind them. They are a historical null and not a prediction of the day being read. Every reading on this page was taken with the target multiple set to ×0.5, the setting we recommend for NQ and the default in the current build, unchanged since w/c 17 August. These captures are 5-minute charts, so outcome times are the bar in which the rail was crossed and are good to the bar; every time on this page was read back off the 5-minute bar data rather than off the pictures. The session close is the 16:55 ET bar, and the six windows that reached neither rail were scored to it.

Two comparisons appear in every capture and they answer different questions. The box tag grades the window against its own last five sessions (💰 accumulation, ⚖️ normal, 🚀 expansion), while the status table's regime row grades it against the full seventeen-year history, and the two are allowed to disagree. They read the same way on nine of the ten windows this week. The one that split was Monday's hour: 252.5 points against a five-day average of 258.1, ⚖️ Normal on the box, against expanded in the table. With the multiple fixed at ×0.5 the regime no longer moves the rails, so it is reported here but it is not doing anything to the targets. The Window strength row read 68% favoured-rail all week, #11 of 91 for the hour and #14 of 91 for the half hour; it describes the window rather than the day.

Two days carried red-folder USD releases, both at 08:30 ET, an hour before the box began: Wednesday 30 September (Core PCE Price Index m/m, Final GDP q/q) and Friday 2 October (Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate). No box, rail or outcome on this page sits on a release bar. On both days the London session high was taken on the 08:30 bar itself. Monday, Tuesday and Thursday carried no high-impact release.

The 60-minute window · 09:30 to 10:30

The longer window waits for the whole first hour to complete before it commits. It gets a bigger, better-defined range to work from and, at a fixed multiple, a target that sits further away in points.

Mon 28 Sep 2026 · 09:30 +60m · NQ 5-minute

Monday 28 September

A short lean at 79%, paid on the fourth bar after the box by 24 points

🧲✅ favoured side reached first · 10:45

• IB range252.50 pt · avg5 258.10 · ⚖️ Normal
• Split▲ 13% · ▼ 49% · ∅ 38% (n 435)
• Shorter horizons▲ 2h 5% · 4h 9% · ▼ 2h 31% · 4h 41%
• Target distance▼ 126.3 pt (×0.5)

252.5 points against a five-day average of 258.1, so ⚖️ NORMAL on the box, while the table, which grades the hour against seventeen years of history, printed expanded. The high, 30,759.25, was the 09:30 bar and the low, 30,506.75, came on the 10:10 bar, in the second half hour. The read was 13 / 49 / 38 from 435 sessions, directional row 79%, decisive 62%, magnet on the lower rail, target 126.3 points below the box at 30,380.50.

The first bar after the window, 10:30, stayed inside the box. The 10:35 bar left it at the bottom, on the same bar that paid the half hour; the 10:40 bar reached 30,425.25, 44.75 points short; the 10:45 bar reached 30,356.50 and cleared the rail by 24 points. Magnet and tick, fifteen minutes after the window closed. That equals the earliest an hour has been settled on the record, the 10:45 of 1 September. The 10:45 low was the low of the cash session. Price came back into the box by midday, with a high after the hit of 30,722.00 at 12:25, and the 16:55 bar traded between 30,540.75 and 30,566.50, inside the box. The upper rail at 30,885.50 was never within 163.5 points.

Sixth draw of 13 / 49 / 38, every one in Atlas mode, and its second payment: crossed against on 26 August, unreached on 31 August, paid on 15 September, unreached on 23 and 25 September, paid today, and unreached again on Thursday.

Tue 29 Sep 2026 · 09:30 +60m · NQ 5-minute

Tuesday 29 September

An abstain at 61% from a box the first three bars had already built

∅ neither target reached · abstained window

• IB range180.00 pt · avg5 247.95 · ⚖️ Normal
• Split▲ 40% · ▼ 26% · ∅ 34% (n 373)
• Shorter horizons▲ 2h 17% · 4h 32% · ▼ 2h 10% · 4h 20%
• Target distance▲ 90.0 pt (×0.5)

180 points against a 247.95 average, ⚖️ NORMAL on both rulers. The high, 30,725.25, was the 09:30 bar and the low, 30,545.25, the 09:40 bar, so the hour's box is exactly the half hour's and nothing in the second half hour extended it. The read was 40 / 26 / 34 from 373 sessions and the directional row printed 61%, one point under the 62% the Atlas mode asks for, so no magnet was placed and both rails printed grey. The larger share was the upper rail, 90 points above the box at 30,815.25.

Price never traded above the box high again. The best it did was 30,706.50 at 10:55, inside the box and 108.75 points short of the upper rail. It slipped out of the bottom at 11:25 and made the low of the day, 30,504.00, at 12:45, 41.25 points below the box and 48.75 points short of the lower rail at 30,455.25. The afternoon climbed back, and the 16:55 bar closed at 30,651.00, inside the box.

Third draw of 40 / 26 / 34, every one an abstain: neither on 9 September, larger share on 14 September, neither today, and neither again on Wednesday.

Wed 30 Sep 2026 · 09:30 +60m · NQ 5-minute

Wednesday 30 September

The same abstain at 61% the next morning, out of both ends of the box and near neither rail

∅ neither target reached · abstained window

• IB range210.75 pt · avg5 239.10 · ⚖️ Normal
• Split▲ 40% · ▼ 26% · ∅ 34% (n 373)
• Shorter horizons▲ 2h 17% · 4h 32% · ▼ 2h 10% · 4h 20%
• Target distance▲ 105.4 pt (×0.5)

210.75 points against a 239.1 average, ⚖️ NORMAL on both rulers. The low, 30,682.25, was the 09:30 bar; the high, 30,893.00, came at 10:05. The read was the same cell as Tuesday's, 40 / 26 / 34 from 373 sessions at 61% directional, so again no magnet and two grey rails, the larger share on the upper at 30,998.38 and the lower at 30,576.88.

Price traded above the box high on three bars, 11:45, 11:50 and 12:10, and the session high of 30,906.00 on the 11:50 bar was 13 points above the box and 92.4 points short of the upper rail. It then ranged inside the box until the 15:55 bar took it out of the bottom; the low, 30,636.75 at 16:00, was 45.5 points below the box and 59.9 short of the lower rail. Three bars below, three above, and the 16:55 bar closed at 30,726.25, back inside.

Fourth draw of 40 / 26 / 34: one larger share and three blanks, all four abstains.

Thu 1 Oct 2026 · 09:30 +60m · NQ 5-minute

Thursday 1 October

The widest hour of the week, out of both ends of its box, and about 120 points short of both rails

∅ neither target reached · the 38% branch

• IB range296.25 pt · avg5 206.70 · 🚀 Expansion
• Split▲ 13% · ▼ 49% · ∅ 38% (n 435)
• Shorter horizons▲ 2h 5% · 4h 9% · ▼ 2h 31% · 4h 41%
• Target distance▼ 148.1 pt (×0.5)

296.25 points against a 206.7 average, 🚀 EXPANSION on the box and expanded in the table, the widest first hour of the week. The high, 30,856.25, was the 09:30 bar; the low, 30,560.00, came at 10:20, at the end of the fall that had paid the half hour at 10:00. The read was 13 / 49 / 38 from 435 sessions, the same cell as Monday's, directional row 79%, magnet on the lower rail. At a fixed multiple a box this wide puts the target 148.1 points away, at 30,411.88.

Price went out of the bottom of the box at 11:05 and reached 30,531.50 at 11:10, 28.5 points below the box low and 119.6 points short of the rail. It then climbed back through the whole box: out of the top at 13:30, high of the day 30,883.50 at 13:45, 27.25 points above the box and 120.9 short of the upper rail at 31,004.38. The 16:55 bar closed at 30,770.50, inside.

Seventh draw of 13 / 49 / 38 and its fourth blank, three days after Monday's draw of the same cell was paid on the fourth bar. Same cell, same lean, same week, opposite marks.

Fri 2 Oct 2026 · 09:30 +60m · NQ 5-minute

Friday 2 October

A long lean from a box that closed at its top, and price never got back above it

∅ neither target reached · the 40% branch

• IB range226.75 pt · avg5 236.35 · ⚖️ Normal
• Split▲ 49% · ▼ 11% · ∅ 40% (n 620)
• Shorter horizons▲ 2h 27% · 4h 40% · ▼ 2h 3% · 4h 7%
• Target distance▲ 113.4 pt (×0.5)

226.75 points against a 236.35 average, ⚖️ NORMAL on both rulers. The low, 31,056.00, was the 09:30 bar; the high, 31,282.75, came on the 10:25 bar, the last of the window and the one after the bar that paid the half hour, so the box closed at its own top. The read was 49 / 11 / 40 from 620 sessions, directional row 82%, decisive 60%, magnet on the upper rail, target 113.4 points above the box at 31,396.13.

Price never traded above the box high again. The 10:40 bar reached 31,273.75, 122.4 points short of the rail, and that was the best of the rest of the day. The 11:10 bar took price out of the bottom of the box, and the 11:25 bar reached 30,988.00, 68 points below the box and 45.4 short of the lower rail at 30,942.63. Price spent the afternoon either side of the box low: of the 60 bars from 12:00 to 16:55, 21 traded wholly below it, most of them between 13:25 and 15:20, and 22 wholly back inside. The 16:55 bar closed at 31,049.00, 7 points under it.

Seventh draw of 49 / 11 / 40 and its sixth in Atlas mode: three paid and three unreached, with the first draw, on 4 August, an abstain that reached its larger share. The 40% ∅ share is the largest any lean this week carried, and it is a frequency over 620 sessions, not a comment on this one.

The 30-minute window · 09:30 to 10:00

The shorter window commits half an hour earlier, from a smaller range, and its target is therefore usually nearer. It is a different measurement of the same morning, not a second opinion on it.

Mon 28 Sep 2026 · 09:30 +30m · NQ 5-minute

Monday 28 September

An abstain at 61%, and the larger share reached ten minutes before the hour's rail

✅ larger share reached first · 10:35 · abstained window

• IB range177.00 pt · avg5 172.35 · ⚖️ Normal
• Split▲ 33% · ▼ 50% · ∅ 17% (n 347)
• Shorter horizons▲ 2h 18% · 4h 26% · ▼ 2h 38% · 4h 44%
• Target distance▼ 88.5 pt (×0.5)

177 points against a 172.35 average, ⚖️ NORMAL on both rulers. High 30,759.25 on the opening bar, low 30,582.25 at 09:50. The read was 33 / 50 / 17 from 347 sessions and the directional row printed 61%, one point under the 62% floor, so no magnet and two grey rails. The larger share was the lower rail, 88.5 points below the box at 30,493.75.

The 10:05 bar left the box at the bottom and the 10:10 bar reached 30,506.75, 13 points short. Price poked back into the box on the 10:20 and 10:25 bars, then the 10:35 bar reached 30,489.50 and cleared the rail by 4.25 points. A plain green tick, recording that the larger of the two grey shares got there first, thirty-five minutes after the window closed.

The fall did not stop there. The hour's rail, 113.25 points lower, went on the 10:45 bar, ten minutes later. Two windows, two different bars. Fourth draw of 33 / 50 / 17, every one an abstain: smaller share on 27 August, neither on 31 August, larger share on 7 September and today, and neither on Tuesday.

Tue 29 Sep 2026 · 09:30 +30m · NQ 5-minute

Tuesday 29 September

The same 180-point box read the other way, and the lower rail stayed 48.75 points off

∅ neither target reached · abstained window

• IB range180.00 pt · avg5 166.50 · ⚖️ Normal
• Split▲ 33% · ▼ 50% · ∅ 17% (n 347)
• Shorter horizons▲ 2h 18% · 4h 26% · ▼ 2h 38% · 4h 44%
• Target distance▼ 90.0 pt (×0.5)

180 points against a 166.5 average, ⚖️ NORMAL on both rulers. High 30,725.25 on the opening bar, low 30,545.25 at 09:40: the same box, and so the same rails at 30,455.25 and 30,815.25, as the hour. It drew Monday's half-hour cell, 33 / 50 / 17 from 347 sessions at 61%, another abstain, with the larger share on the lower rail.

The price path is the hour's. High after the window 30,706.50 at 10:55, inside the box; out of the bottom at 11:25; low of the day 30,504.00 at 12:45, 48.75 points short of the lower rail; the 16:55 bar closed at 30,651.00, inside the box. Neither rail.

Fifth draw of 33 / 50 / 17. Tuesday is the one morning of the five on which the two durations favoured opposite rails, and it did so from one box: the hour's cell put its larger share on the upper rail and this one put it on the lower, both one point under the floor, and price reached neither.

Wed 30 Sep 2026 · 09:30 +30m · NQ 5-minute

Wednesday 30 September

A long lean at 81% that left the box on the first bar and stopped 18.1 points short

∅ neither target reached · the 19% branch

• IB range161.25 pt · avg5 165.70 · ⚖️ Normal
• Split▲ 65% · ▼ 16% · ∅ 19% (n 635)
• Shorter horizons▲ 2h 48% · 4h 57% · ▼ 2h 8% · 4h 12%
• Target distance▲ 80.6 pt (×0.5)

161.25 points against a 165.7 average, ⚖️ NORMAL on both rulers (the box tag sits behind the candles in this capture; the figures are the label's). Low 30,682.25 on the opening bar, high 30,843.50 on the 09:55 bar, the last one of the window, so the box closed at its own top. The read was 65 / 16 / 19 from 635 sessions, directional row 81%, decisive 81%, magnet on the upper rail, target 80.6 points above the box at 30,924.13.

The 10:00 bar, the first after the window, went straight out of the top to 30,874.75, and price spent much of the next four hours above or around the box high. The closest it came was 30,906.00 on the 11:50 bar, 18.1 points short, the nearest any blank window came to a rail this week. The 15:55 bar took price out of the bottom of the box; the low, 30,636.75 at 16:00, was 35.1 points above the lower rail. The 16:55 bar closed at 30,726.25, inside the box.

Eighth draw of 65 / 16 / 19 and its third blank: four paid, one crossed against, three unreached. A 19% ∅ share is a frequency over 635 sessions, and this was one of them.

Thu 1 Oct 2026 · 09:30 +30m · NQ 5-minute

Thursday 1 October

A short lean paid on the first bar after the box

🧲✅ favoured side reached first · 10:00

• IB range152.75 pt · avg5 161.95 · ⚖️ Normal
• Split▲ 28% · ▼ 53% · ∅ 19% (n 440)
• Shorter horizons▲ 2h 15% · 4h 22% · ▼ 2h 43% · 4h 49%
• Target distance▼ 76.4 pt (×0.5)

152.75 points against a 161.95 average, ⚖️ NORMAL on both rulers. High 30,856.25 on the opening bar, low 30,703.50 at 09:45. The read was 28 / 53 / 19 from 440 sessions, directional row 66%, decisive 81%, magnet on the lower rail, target 76.4 points below the box at 30,627.13.

The 10:00 bar, the first after the window, ran from 30,754.50 down to 30,609.00 and through the rail by 18.1 points. Magnet and tick, on the first bar it could have happened on, which equals the 10:00 of 18 September as the earliest resolution on the record. This capture was taken one bar later than the others in the set, so the extra bar on the right is the 10:05. The fall carried on to 30,560.00 at 10:20, which became the hour's box low; price rebounded back into this box by 10:35, then fell again to 30,531.50 at 11:10, 95.6 points beyond this rail.

Ninth draw of 28 / 53 / 19, the most drawn cell on the record: four paid and five unreached. The hour, read from the box this fall widened, leaned the same way and reached nothing.

Fri 2 Oct 2026 · 09:30 +30m · NQ 5-minute

Friday 2 October

A long lean at 71%, paid twenty minutes after the box by 5.4 points

🧲✅ favoured side reached first · 10:20

• IB range145.75 pt · avg5 166.00 · ⚖️ Normal
• Split▲ 59% · ▼ 24% · ∅ 17% (n 562)
• Shorter horizons▲ 2h 43% · 4h 52% · ▼ 2h 12% · 4h 19%
• Target distance▲ 72.9 pt (×0.5)

145.75 points against a 166 average, ⚖️ NORMAL on both rulers, the narrowest box of the week. Low 31,056.00 on the opening bar, high 31,201.75 at 09:50. The read was 59 / 24 / 17 from 562 sessions, directional row 71%, decisive 83%, magnet on the upper rail, target 72.9 points above the box at 31,274.63.

The 10:00 bar went out of the top to 31,252.50. The 10:15 bar reached 31,262.25 and stopped 12.4 points short; the 10:20 bar reached 31,280.00 and cleared the rail by 5.4 points. Magnet and tick, twenty minutes after the window closed. The 10:25 bar made the high of the day, 31,282.75, and that was the hour's box high.

What came after does not change the mark, which records the first rail reached, but it is worth knowing: price fell out of the bottom of the box at 11:10 and reached 30,988.00 at 11:25, 4.9 points above this window's lower rail. Second draw of 59 / 24 / 17: last Friday it was crossed against at 10:15 by 3.75 points, this Friday it was paid at 10:20 by 5.4.

Four rails by 10:45, then nothing for six hours

Four of the ten windows on this page were settled by a rail, and all four were settled early: Thursday's half hour at 10:00, Friday's at 10:20, Monday's at 10:35 and Monday's hour at 10:45. Every one went to the favoured or larger side. The other six windows were still open at 10:45 and were still open at the 16:55 close. Three of the five half hours resolved and one of the five hours did, a week after every half hour had. Neither week says anything about the next one.

Three cells drew twice this week with identical shares and bins both times, and only one pair produced the same mark. 33 / 50 / 17 from 347 read Monday's and Tuesday's half hours: larger share at 10:35, then neither. 13 / 49 / 38 from 435 read Monday's and Thursday's hours: paid at 10:45, then unreached. 40 / 26 / 34 from 373 read Tuesday's and Wednesday's hours: neither, twice. Last week three repeated cells gave three matching pairs. Both are what a frequency measured over hundreds of sessions looks like when it is sampled twice, and neither week is evidence about the cell.

The near misses on blank windows were these. Wednesday's half hour stopped 18.1 points under its rail at 11:50, the closest any blank came. Tuesday's two windows stopped 48.75 points above the lower rail. Separately, Friday's half hour, already paid at 10:20, later came within 4.9 points of its lower rail, which counts for nothing because the record grades the first rail reached. Thursday's hour went out of both ends of its 296.25-point box and finished about 120 points short of both rails.

Across nine weeks the running count now stands at 90 windows: 37 reached the favoured or larger share first, 11 reached the other rail first, and 42 reached neither. Of the 59 that were in Atlas mode, 28 paid, 26 reached nothing and 5 were crossed against. Ninety windows cannot confirm or refute frequencies measured over hundreds of sessions.

What this week actually shows

Five things, from a week of early marks and long blanks.

1. Four abstains, every one at 61%. Each printed a directional row one point under the 62% the Atlas mode asks for, so each got grey rails and no magnet. One, Monday's half hour, reached its larger share; the other three reached nothing. The scorer counts them as abstains because that is what the indicator showed.
2. Every rail reached was reached by 10:45. Thursday's half hour was paid on the first bar after its box, equalling the 10:00 of 18 September as the earliest resolution on the record, and Monday's hour at 10:45 equals the earliest an hour has resolved, the 10:45 of 1 September. Nothing resolved after that on any day.
3. Three of six leans paid and none was crossed against. It is the fifth week of nine with no lean marked against, and the second, after w/c 7 September, in which no window of any kind reached the other rail first. The Atlas-mode count across the whole record is now 59 windows: 28 paid, 26 unreached, 5 against.
4. Tuesday read one box two ways. The same 180-point box drew an upper larger share at the hour and a lower one at the half hour, both at 61%, and price reached neither rail. Same morning, same rails, opposite readings, one blank.
5. Three repeated cells, one matching pair. 40 / 26 / 34 was blank on Tuesday and Wednesday; 13 / 49 / 38 paid on Monday and was blank on Thursday; 33 / 50 / 17 reached its larger share on Monday and nothing on Tuesday. 28 / 53 / 19, drawn on Thursday, is now the most drawn cell on the record at nine draws, four paid and five unreached.