The first inside session the gold record has produced, rated 7%, and the NQ book printed one the same morning

The week at a glance

Every rating in this table is transcribed from the close capture of that morning; the Modal column is the largest of the four shares and the High and Low columns are the two marginals summed from them, as the note explains.

Four-way reads high only / low only / both / inside and always sums to 100. These are the historical frequencies the indicator carries for that cell, not forecasts for the morning in front of it. High and Low carry the marginal probability that side is taken at all, which is that side's exclusive share plus the both-sides share, not the number printed on the level itself. These captures are 5-minute charts, so an outcome time is the bar in which the level was crossed and is good to the bar. On Thursday and Friday the low went on the 08:00 opening bar itself, so the tick is already on the open capture; Friday's open capture still reads low only because the high did not go until 08:40. Monday's row is the record's first inside session: neither level was reached, so there is no first sweep, and the scorer counts the 87% call as a miss by construction. Two red folder USD releases fell inside the session, both at 08:30, and both are marked against the day.

Morning by morning

Open capture on the left, close capture on the right. Click any chart to enlarge.

Monday 7 September

Neither level touched, the first inside session of the gold record, on a 7% rating

First sweep ✗ by construction · modal branch ✗ · inside, rated 7%

11 / 69 / 13 / 7, first sweep 13 / 87, out of 562 sessions. The Eurasia range was 43.6 points and had swept its predecessor's low, price opened at 4430.6 below Eurasia EQ with the low 4.4 points beneath it and the high 39.2 points above. It was Labor Day: COMEX gold closed early at 14:30 ET, though the 08:00 to 11:30 window itself ran in full, so this is a complete session on a thin tape.

The session low was its own opening print, 4430.6 on the 08:00 bar, and price never traded below it. It climbed through Eurasia EQ and topped at 4465.2 on the 10:50 bar, then eased to 4458 at the close. The high finished 4.6 points short of 4469.8 and the low 4.4 points above 4426.2. The table's median penetrations are +25.1 and -24.9 points, so neither side came within a fifth of a normal reach of the level.

This is the first inside session in the gold record, twenty-five sessions in. It carried 7%. Two things follow that are worth separating. The modal branch, low only at 69%, missed. And with neither level taken there is no first sweep to call, so the 87% on the low is recorded as a miss by construction rather than as a call that went the wrong way. The NQ book printed an inside session on the same morning, where its own table rated inside at 0%. A 7% branch landing is one draw and is not evidence about the 7%, in either direction.

• Eurasia range43.6 pt, above average
• Prior sweepSwept low
• Open vs Eurasia EQBelow EQ
• Four-way11 / 69 / 13 / 7
• First sweep▲ 13% · ▼ 87%
• P(high taken)24% → not taken
• P(low taken)82% → not taken
• Samplen 562, High

Tuesday 8 September

The low taken on the 08:15 bar, and price stopped 2.8 points through it

First sweep ✓ · modal branch ✓ · low only, as rated

29 / 45 / 14 / 12, first sweep 38 / 62, out of 649 sessions. A 41.9 point Eurasia that had swept its predecessor's low, price opening at 4450.9 below EQ, the low 18.8 points under it and the high 23.1 points over.

The low went on the 08:15 bar. What is worth reading is how far it went: the session bottomed at 4429.3, 2.8 points through 4432.1, against a table median down-penetration of 24.1 points. Price then turned and made its high of 4457.9 on the 09:00 bar before drifting to 4444.6 at the close. The Eurasia high at 4474.0 was never within 16 points.

Both marginals resolved as stated: the low at 59% went and the high at 43% did not. The morning scores on both axes. It is also a reminder of what the taken tick does and does not say. It records that the level was crossed. It says nothing about how far, and on this morning the answer was about a tenth of a normal penetration.

• Eurasia range41.9 pt, above average
• Prior sweepSwept low
• Open vs Eurasia EQBelow EQ
• Four-way29 / 45 / 14 / 12
• First sweep▲ 38% · ▼ 62%
• P(high taken)43% → not taken
• P(low taken)59% → taken 08:15
• Samplen 649, High

Wednesday 9 September

The high at 09:15, a sideways late morning, then a thirty-seven point bar at 11:00 and the low at 11:05

First sweep ✓ · modal branch ✗ · both sides, rated 27%

45 / 24 / 27 / 4, first sweep 65 / 35, out of 729 sessions. The same four shares the record drew on 18 and 25 August. Eurasia printed 32.1 points, below average, and had swept its predecessor's high; price opened at 4452.0 above EQ with the high 7.9 points away.

The high went on the 09:15 bar and the session topped at 4478.9 on the 09:30 bar, 19.0 points through the level against a median up-penetration of 22.7. From 09:35 to 10:55 price held a 22 point band between 4453.2 and 4475.5. Then the 11:00 bar printed 4476.8, its highest since the 09:30 top, and fell to 4439.3 inside itself, about thirty-seven points in five minutes. The 11:05 bar latched the low and price reached 4419.2 at 11:20, 8.6 points through. Top to bottom the session ran 59.7 points on a Eurasia range of 32.1.

Both marginals resolved as stated: the high at 72% went and the low at 51% went. The first sweep call at 65% on the high was right. The modal branch was high only at 45%, and it missed, because the modal branch is the exclusive one: the called side going is not enough if the other side goes too. Those four shares have now been drawn three times and produced both sides twice; the 45% high-only branch they name has landed none of the three.

• Eurasia range32.1 pt, below average
• Prior sweepSwept high
• Open vs Eurasia EQAbove EQ
• Four-way45 / 24 / 27 / 4
• First sweep▲ 65% · ▼ 35%
• P(high taken)72% → taken 09:15
• P(low taken)51% → taken 11:05
• Samplen 729, High

Thursday 10 September

The low sat 1.6 points under the open, went on the opening bar, and price carried fifty points past it

First sweep ✓ · modal branch ✓ · low only, as rated🔴 Core PPI, PPI · 08:30 ET

7 / 73 / 4 / 16, first sweep 9 / 91, out of 660 sessions. The Eurasia range was 64.1 points, the third widest the gold record has shown, and it had swept both of its own levels. Price opened at 4416.8 with the Eurasia low 1.6 points beneath it and the Eurasia high 62.5 points above.

The low went on the 08:00 bar itself, which is why the taken tick and both the 73% and 91% ticks are already on the open capture. The session then fell hard: a large down bar at 08:30 and a low of 4365.4 at 08:35, 49.8 points through the level, better than double the table's median down-penetration of 22.6. Core PPI and PPI printed at 08:30, on the bar the fall began. The timing is worth recording; the table is a lookup on the prior session's geometry and carries no calendar, and nothing here establishes cause.

Both marginals resolved as stated: the low at 77% went and the high at 11% did not. The session recovered through the rest of the morning and closed near 4407. Its high of 4424.2 came on the 08:30 bar, five minutes before the low, and left the Eurasia high 55 points out of reach. A level 1.6 points from the open being taken is the least surprising thing the tables can record, and 91% on it going first is the table saying so.

• Eurasia range64.1 pt, above average
• Prior sweepSwept both
• Open vs Eurasia EQBelow EQ
• Four-way7 / 73 / 4 / 16
• First sweep▲ 9% · ▼ 91%
• P(high taken)11% → not taken
• P(low taken)77% → taken 08:00
• Samplen 660, High

Friday 11 September

A 112 point session on a 30.2 point Eurasia, and both levels gone by 08:40

First sweep ✓ · modal branch ✗ · both sides, rated 27%🔴 Core CPI, CPI · 08:30 ET

12 / 59 / 27 / 2, first sweep 16 / 84, out of 531 sessions. Eurasia printed 30.2 points, below average, and had swept its predecessor's high. Price opened at 4375.3 with the low 3.3 points beneath it, so the low went on the 08:00 bar and its tick, with the 59% and 84% ticks, is already on the open capture. That capture still reads low only, because at 08:04 the high had not gone.

The 08:30 bar printed a lower wick to 4333.4, 38.6 points through the Eurasia low, and reversed inside the same five minutes. The high was taken two bars later at 08:40 and price carried to 4445.2 by 09:55, 43.0 points above 4402.2 against a median up-penetration of 22.8. Core CPI and CPI printed at 08:30, thirty minutes into the session and on the bar that made the low. That is the timing; it is not a claim about cause.

Top to bottom the session ran 112 points against a 30.2 point Eurasia, close to four times the range the levels were drawn from and the widest such ratio of the week. Both marginals resolved as stated: the low at 86% went and the high at 39% went. The first sweep call at 84% on the low was right. The modal branch, low only at 59%, missed, because the high went as well. The same four shares were drawn a week earlier on Friday 4 September and produced low only that day; both times the low went, and both times it went first.

• Eurasia range30.2 pt, below average
• Prior sweepSwept high
• Open vs Eurasia EQBelow EQ
• Four-way12 / 59 / 27 / 2
• First sweep▲ 16% · ▼ 84%
• P(high taken)39% → taken 08:40
• P(low taken)86% → taken 08:00
• Samplen 531, Medium

What the week actually showed

• The gold record has its first inside session, twenty-five sessions in, and it carried 7%. Monday's US AM took neither Eurasia level, finishing 4.6 points under the high and 4.4 points above the low. Across the twenty-five gold sessions on these pages the inside share has averaged about 12%, and the two largest it has ever carried, 33% on 28 August and 32% on 1 September, both saw a level go. The one that landed was rated 7%. Twenty-five sessions cannot tell a 7% branch from a 15% one, so read it as one draw and nothing more. The NQ book printed an inside session on the same morning, on a table that rated inside at 0%.
• Monday's first-sweep miss is a miss by construction, not a call that went wrong. When neither level is reached there is no first sweep, so the 87% on the low has nothing to be right or wrong about and the scorer books it against the week. Said the other way: on the four days that swept anything, the called side was taken first every time, Tuesday's low, Wednesday's high, Thursday's low and Friday's low. The week reads 4 of 5 and the record reads 18 of 25.
• The modal branch landed twice, and the three misses were not the same kind of miss. Tuesday and Thursday were called low only and were low only. Monday was called low only and no level went at all. Wednesday was called high only and both sides went; Friday was called low only and both sides went. So of the three misses, one took neither level and the other two were the called side going with company, which changes nothing about the score, because the modal branch is the exclusive one. At 2 of 5 the week equals the weakest modal week gold has had, matching w/c 17 August and w/c 24 August, and the record now reads 13 of 25.
• Both sides landed twice, on a 27% rating each time. Across twenty-five gold sessions the both-sides branch has now landed seven times against a mean rating of 15%, and it has never once been the modal branch: in twenty-five draws the tables have named high only fourteen times and low only eleven, and never named both or inside. That is a structural feature of the record worth watching rather than a result, and it is why an inside morning can only ever score as a modal miss.
• Friday ran 112 points on a 30.2 point Eurasia, close to four times the range the levels were measured from. It is the widest session-to-prior ratio of the week, with the low taken on the opening bar, a wick to 4333.4 on the 08:30 bar and the high taken at 08:40. CPI printed at 08:30, thirty minutes into the session. The tables are a lookup on the prior session's geometry and carry no calendar; the timing is recorded here because it is worth recording, not because anything on this page establishes cause.
• Levels went six of ten against a mean stated 54%. Over five weeks that is thirty-one of fifty against a mean stated 52%, a realised 62%. Four sides went untaken. Monday's pair finished within 4.6 points of price, and the other two were a long way from it, the Thursday high 55 points out of reach and the Tuesday high 16; one of the six that went held by 2.8 points. Fifty level events is still far too few to say anything about a frequency measured over hundreds.