Three first sweeps from five, two modal branches, and the second inside session of the gold record, this one rated 33%

The week at a glance

Every rating in this table is transcribed from the close capture of that morning; the Modal column is the largest of the four shares and the High and Low columns are the two marginals summed from them, as the note explains.

Four-way reads high only / low only / both / inside and always sums to 100. These are the historical frequencies the indicator carries for that cell, not forecasts for the morning in front of it. High and Low carry the marginal probability that side is taken at all, which is that side's exclusive share plus the both-sides share, not the number printed on the level itself. These captures are 5-minute charts, so an outcome time is the bar in which the level was crossed and is good to the bar. No day this week carries the study's era flag. Thursday is an inside session: neither level was reached, the close capture carries no tick on any row, and the scorer counts the 64% first-sweep call as a miss by construction. On Monday both levels went, so the modal branch, an exclusive branch, scores as a miss even though the high it named was taken. There was no red folder USD release at any time during the week, so no day on this page is marked for news.

Morning by morning

Open capture on the left, close capture on the right. Click any chart to enlarge.

Monday 21 September

The high on the 08:05 bar, the low on the 10:00 bar, and a 31% both-sides branch landing on its third draw

First sweep ✓ · modal branch ✗ · both sides, rated 31%

58 / 8 / 31 / 3, first sweep 88 / 12, out of 476 sessions. The Eurasia range was 32.8 points, below average, and had swept its predecessor's low. Price opened at 4407.3 above Eurasia EQ with the high only 2.0 points above it and the low 30.8 points below. The Eurasia high itself was the 07:55 bar, the last one before the open, so the level was five minutes old when the window began.

The 08:00 bar reached 4408.7 and stopped 0.6 of a point under the level. The 08:05 bar crossed it and printed the session high, 4413.1, 3.8 points through against a median up-penetration of 22.6. That was the top for the morning. Price then slid for two hours, the 10:00 bar ran from 4385.0 down to 4363.1 and crossed 4376.5 inside itself, and the session bottomed at 4360.6 on the 10:05 bar, 15.9 points through against a median down-penetration of 22.4. The last eighty minutes recovered to a close of 4389.4.

The high at 89% went and the low at 39% went too, so the both-sides branch landed and the modal branch, high only at 58%, missed. The first sweep at 88% was called correctly. These four shares are the cell drawn on 2 and 3 September, both of which gave high only with the high going on the 08:00 bar; this is the cell's third draw and its first both-sides morning. The 31% is the largest both-sides share any cell on this record has carried, and one landing from three draws says nothing about a 31% frequency.

• Eurasia range32.8 pt, below average
• Prior sweepSwept low
• Open vs Eurasia EQAbove EQ
• Four-way58 / 8 / 31 / 3
• First sweep▲ 88% · ▼ 12%
• P(high taken)89% → taken 08:05
• P(low taken)39% → taken 10:00
• Samplen 476, Medium

Tuesday 22 September

The high on the 08:20 bar and held by seven points, the low never within twenty-four

First sweep ✓ · modal branch ✓ · high only, as rated

48 / 19 / 4 / 29, first sweep 70 / 30, out of 573 sessions. Eurasia printed 47.8 points, above average, and had swept its predecessor's low. Price opened at 4360.1 above Eurasia EQ, the high 15.2 points above and the low 32.6 below.

The first four bars held between 4356.8 and 4364.4. The 08:20 bar then ran from 4362.2 to 4379.4 and crossed 4375.3 inside itself. Price traded either side of the level for the rest of the morning, topped at 4382.2 on the 09:45 bar, 6.9 points through against a median up-penetration of 21.3, and dipped to a session low of 4351.9 on the 10:40 bar, 24.4 points above 4327.5. It closed at 4370.1. One detail a reader can check: the 08:55 bar's high printed 4375.3 exactly, the level itself, on the way back down.

Both marginals resolved as stated: the high at 52% went and the low at 23% did not. These four shares have now been drawn four times, on 13 August, 27 August, today and again on Friday, and today is the first time the 48% high-only branch they name has landed: the other three all gave low only. The same goes for the 70% first-sweep-high call, which is one from four on this cell. Friday's page below is the fourth draw.

• Eurasia range47.8 pt, above average
• Prior sweepSwept low
• Open vs Eurasia EQAbove EQ
• Four-way48 / 19 / 4 / 29
• First sweep▲ 70% · ▼ 30%
• P(high taken)52% → taken 08:20
• P(low taken)23% → not taken
• Samplen 573, High

Wednesday 23 September

The high 23.8 points out of reach, the low on the 09:40 bar and seventeen points through it

First sweep ✓ · modal branch ✓ · low only, as rated

23 / 40 / 4 / 33, first sweep 36 / 64, out of 587 sessions. The Eurasia range was 48.6 points, above average, and had swept its predecessor's low. Price opened at 4346.4 below Eurasia EQ, the low 15.5 points beneath it and the high 33.1 points above. The Eurasia low itself was the 07:35 bar, twenty-five minutes before the open.

The session high came early, 4355.7 on the 08:10 bar, 23.8 points short of 4379.5. Ninety minutes of drift followed, then the 09:40 bar ran from 4341.1 to 4322.6 and crossed 4330.9 inside itself. The session bottomed at 4313.6 on the 10:25 bar, 17.3 points through against a median down-penetration of 20.7, and closed at 4319.6, six points off its low.

Both marginals resolved as stated: the low at 44% went and the high at 27% did not. The 33% inside share is the largest any cell on this record carries, and it was live for a hundred minutes here before the low went. These four shares were drawn on 28 August, when they gave both sides, and they came up again on Thursday, the very next morning, on an almost identical Eurasia.

• Eurasia range48.6 pt, above average
• Prior sweepSwept low
• Open vs Eurasia EQBelow EQ
• Four-way23 / 40 / 4 / 33
• First sweep▲ 36% · ▼ 64%
• P(high taken)27% → not taken
• P(low taken)44% → taken 09:40
• Samplen 587, High

Thursday 24 September

Neither level touched, the low missed by 1.4 points on the 11:10 bar, and the second inside session of the gold record

First sweep ✗ by construction · modal branch ✗ · inside, rated 33%

23 / 40 / 4 / 33, first sweep 36 / 64, out of 587 sessions. The same cell as Wednesday. Eurasia printed 47.6 points, above average, and had swept its predecessor's low. Price opened at 4300.3, which the table read as below Eurasia EQ by 1.7 points, with the high 25.5 points above and the low 22.1 below. The Eurasia low itself was the 06:30 bar.

The first hour climbed. The session high of 4320.3 came on the 09:00 bar and stopped 5.5 points under 4325.8. Price then fell for two hours and ten minutes, the 11:10 bar printed 4279.6, and that was 1.4 points above 4278.2. The last three bars lifted off it and the session closed at 4285.4. Neither level was reached, so there is no first sweep, and the 64% call scores as a miss by construction.

Both marginals missed: the high at 27% did not go and the low at 44% did not go either. This is the second inside session in thirty-five gold sessions. The first, on 7 September, came on a 7% inside rating; this one came on 33%, the largest inside share any cell on this record carries, and the modal branch it beat, low only at 40%, was seven points ahead of it. A 1.4 point miss and an inside session are the same event on a binary test, which is why the distance is printed here.

• Eurasia range47.6 pt, above average
• Prior sweepSwept low
• Open vs Eurasia EQBelow EQ
• Four-way23 / 40 / 4 / 33
• First sweep▲ 36% · ▼ 64%
• P(high taken)27% → not taken
• P(low taken)44% → not taken
• Samplen 587, High

Friday 25 September

The low on the 10:00 bar against a 70% first-sweep-high call, and the fourth draw of a cell that has given low only three times

First sweep ✗ · modal branch ✗ · low only, rated 19%

48 / 19 / 4 / 29, first sweep 70 / 30, out of 573 sessions. Tuesday's cell again, this time reached from a Eurasia that had swept its predecessor's high. The range was 54.3 points, the widest of the week and above average. Price opened at 4339.0 above Eurasia EQ, the high 12.6 points above and the low 41.7 below. The Eurasia high itself was the 07:10 bar.

The session high came on the 08:25 bar at 4345.4, 6.2 points short of 4351.6, and price never traded higher. The decline that followed steepened through the second hour and the 10:00 bar ran from 4313.3 to 4292.5, crossing 4297.3 inside itself. The session low was 4289.1 on the 10:05 bar, 8.2 points through against a median down-penetration of 19.2 and 49.9 points below the open. The last eighty minutes recovered to 4314.4.

Both marginals resolved the wrong way: the high at 52% did not go and the low at 23% did. The first sweep went to the low against a 70% high call, and the modal branch, high only at 48%, missed. This is the fourth draw of these four shares and the third to give low only, the branch the cell rates at 19%; Tuesday was the only draw that went the way the cell leans. Four draws cannot tell you the cell is wrong, and they cannot tell you it is right either. It is recorded because the repeat is a fact of the record.

• Eurasia range54.3 pt, above average
• Prior sweepSwept high
• Open vs Eurasia EQAbove EQ
• Four-way48 / 19 / 4 / 29
• First sweep▲ 70% · ▼ 30%
• P(high taken)52% → not taken
• P(low taken)23% → taken 10:00
• Samplen 573, High

What the week actually showed

• Three first sweeps from five and two modal branches from five, the week after the record's first five and five. Only w/c 24 August has scored lower on the first sweep, at 2 of 5, and 2 of 5 on the modal branch is the joint lowest, shared with three earlier weeks. Over seven weeks the record now reads 26 of 35 first sweeps and 20 of 35 modal branches. A perfect week followed by a poor one is what ten draws from a favourite that wins six or seven times in ten look like when they are read five at a time, and neither week on its own says anything about the frequency.
• The week produced every shape the tables can name, and the modal branch can only ever land on two of them. Monday took both sides, Thursday stayed inside, and the other three mornings took one side each. The modal branch is simply the highest of the four shares, and in all thirty-five draws so far it has landed on one of the two exclusive branches, high only twenty times and low only fifteen, never on both and never on inside. So on this record a both-sides morning and an inside morning both score as modal misses by construction. Both sides has now landed eight times in thirty-five against a mean both-sides rating of about 14%, and inside twice against a mean inside rating of about 14%. That is a fact about which cells have been drawn, not a property of the score.
• The stated marginals did not separate this week, and three ratings sat on both sides of the ledger. The five levels that were taken carried 23, 39, 44, 52 and 89 percent. The five that were not carried 23, 27, 27, 44 and 52 percent. A 23% low went on Friday and a 23% low stayed put on Tuesday; a 44% low went on Wednesday and a 44% low stayed put on Thursday; a 52% high went on Tuesday and a 52% high stayed put on Friday. Last week every level above 58% went and every level at 51% or below did not. Ten events from a roughly calibrated set of numbers will produce a clean split some weeks and a muddle in others, and this was the muddle. Neither week is evidence about calibration.
• Thursday missed the low by 1.4 points, and Monday's 08:00 bar missed the high by 0.6 before the 08:05 bar took it. Had Thursday's 11:10 bar traded through 4278.2 the morning would have scored low only, the modal branch and the 64% first sweep would both have landed, and the week would read 4 of 5 and 3 of 5 instead of 3 and 2. Two of the week's ten scores turned on 1.4 points. The crossings that did happen were mostly shallow: Monday's high by 3.8 against a median up-penetration of 22.6, Tuesday's by 6.9 against 21.3, Friday's low by 8.2 against 19.2, Monday's low by 15.9 against 22.4 and Wednesday's by 17.3 against 20.7. The taken tick is binary by design; the penetration next to it is the part that says how much the level actually mattered.
• Two cells came up twice, and one of them has now been drawn four times and given low only three of them. Tuesday and Friday drew 48 / 19 / 4 / 29 on 573 sessions, a cell that names high only and has produced low only on 13 August, 27 August and 25 September, with Tuesday the one draw that went the way it leans; its 70% first-sweep-high call is one from four. Wednesday and Thursday drew 23 / 40 / 4 / 33 on 587 sessions on consecutive mornings, and that cell's three draws have now given both sides, low only and inside. The Tuesday and Friday cell is one of three drawn four times on this record, level with 45 / 24 / 27 / 4 and 55 / 22 / 10 / 13. Four draws cannot say whether a cell is right or wrong; the repeats are recorded because a reader can check them against the earlier weeks.
• Levels went five of ten against a mean stated 42%, the lowest mean the tables have carried in seven weeks. The 5 of 10 is the joint lowest taken count, shared with w/c 31 August and w/c 14 September. Over thirty-five sessions the record is 41 of 70 against a mean stated 50%, a realised 59%. Half the levels going against a 42% rating is, on this one week, the tables under-calling; over seventy events the gap is nine points the same way. That gap is the kind of thing this record exists to keep watching, and it is not read here as a finding.