Two first sweeps from five, two modal branches, and the Eurasia high taken on the 08:30 bar twice against a low-first call

The week at a glance

Every rating in this table is transcribed from the close capture of that morning; the Modal column is the largest of the four shares and the High and Low columns are the two marginals summed from them, as the note explains.

Four-way reads high only / low only / both / inside and always sums to 100. These are the historical frequencies the indicator carries for that cell, not forecasts for the morning in front of it. High and Low carry the marginal probability that side is taken at all, which is that side's exclusive share plus the both-sides share, not the number printed on the level itself. These captures are 5-minute charts, so an outcome time is the bar in which the level was crossed and is good to the bar. No day this week carries the study's era flag. Thursday is an inside session: neither level was reached, the close capture carries no tick on any row, and the scorer counts the 70% first-sweep call as a miss by construction. On Wednesday and Friday both levels went, so the modal branch, an exclusive branch, scores as a miss even though the low it named was taken. Red folder USD releases came out at 08:30 on Wednesday (Core PCE m/m and Final GDP q/q) and on Friday (Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate), both inside the US AM window. On both days the Eurasia high was taken on that 08:30 bar. That is recorded as a coincidence of timing; this page draws nothing from it. Monday, Tuesday and Thursday carried no red folder release.

Morning by morning

Open capture on the left, close capture on the right. Click any chart to enlarge.

Monday 28 September

The low on the 09:30 bar as the 91% call had it, and 29.6 points through it by the 10:55 bar

First sweep ✓ · modal branch ✓ · low only, as rated

7 / 73 / 4 / 16, first sweep 9 / 91, out of 660 sessions. The Eurasia range was 50.1 points, above average, and had swept its predecessor's low. Price opened at 4180.9 below Eurasia EQ, the low only 8.3 points beneath it and the high 41.8 above. The Eurasia high was set on the 01:30 bar and the low on the 05:10 bar.

The first twenty minutes went the other way: the session high of 4203.8 came on the 08:20 bar, 18.9 points under 4222.7. Price then fell, and the 09:30 bar ran from 4178.2 down to 4169.1, crossing 4172.6 inside itself. The next bar went 0.8 lower, then price climbed back above the level to 4193.2 on the 09:55 bar before a second leg took it through again on the 10:05 bar and on to a session low of 4143.0 on the 10:55 bar, 29.6 points through against a median down-penetration of 19.3. It closed at 4157.9.

Both marginals resolved as stated: the low at 77% went and the high at 11% did not. The modal branch, low only at 73%, landed and so did the 91% first-sweep-low call. These four shares were also drawn on 10 and 14 September, and all three draws have given low only.

• Eurasia range50.1 pt, above average
• Prior sweepSwept low
• Open vs Eurasia EQBelow EQ
• Four-way7 / 73 / 4 / 16
• First sweep▲ 9% · ▼ 91%
• P(high taken)11% → not taken
• P(low taken)77% → taken 09:30
• Samplen 660, High

Tuesday 29 September

The high on the 09:35 bar after nineteen bars underneath it, and the low never within twenty-six points

First sweep ✓ · modal branch ✓ · high only, as rated

71 / 11 / 14 / 4, first sweep 87 / 13, out of 603 sessions. Eurasia printed 40.2 points, below average, and had swept its predecessor's high. Price opened at 4185.9 above Eurasia EQ, the high 7.4 points above it and the low 32.8 below. The Eurasia low was the 01:30 bar and the high the 07:25 bar, thirty-five minutes before the open.

The first nineteen bars held between 4180.5 and 4192.4, and the 09:30 bar stopped 0.9 of a point under the level. The 09:35 bar crossed it, reaching 4194.2. Price kept climbing to a session high of 4207.3 on the 10:20 bar, 14.0 points through against a median up-penetration of 20.6, then gave all of it back: the last bar printed the session low, 4179.4, and the close was 4184.4, 1.5 under the open.

Both marginals resolved as stated: the high at 85% went and the low at 25% did not. The modal branch, high only at 71%, landed and so did the 87% first-sweep-high call. These four shares were drawn on 11 and 19 August as well, and all three draws have given high only.

• Eurasia range40.2 pt, below average
• Prior sweepSwept high
• Open vs Eurasia EQAbove EQ
• Four-way71 / 11 / 14 / 4
• First sweep▲ 87% · ▼ 13%
• P(high taken)85% → taken 09:35
• P(low taken)25% → not taken
• Samplen 603, High

Wednesday 30 September

The high on the 08:30 bar against a 63% low-first call, then the low on the 10:15 bar for both sides at 29%

First sweep ✗ · modal branch ✗ · both sides, rated 29%🔴 08:30 Core PCE m/m, Final GDP q/q

24 / 41 / 29 / 6, first sweep 37 / 63, out of 718 sessions. The Eurasia range was 29.0 points, the narrowest of the week and below average, and had swept its predecessor's high. Price opened at 4217.9, which the table read as below Eurasia EQ; it sat 1.7 points under it, with the high 16.2 points above and the low 12.8 below. The Eurasia low was the 01:30 bar and the high the 04:35 bar.

The first six bars stayed between 4213.7 and 4226.6. The 08:30 bar then ran from 4219.0 to 4251.4, crossing 4234.1 inside itself and printing the session high on the same bar, 17.3 points through against a median up-penetration of 20.3. The next seven bars held above the level and the 09:10 bar traded back inside the range. The decline went on: the 10:00 bar's low printed 4205.1 exactly, the level itself, and the 10:15 bar was the first to trade through it. The session bottomed at 4181.9 on the last bar, 23.2 points through against a median down-penetration of 20.1, and closed at 4187.8.

The high at 53% went and the low at 70% went too, so the both-sides branch landed and the modal branch, low only at 41%, missed. The first sweep went to the high against a 63% low-first call. These four shares were drawn once before, on 17 August, and gave both sides then too, with the low first that time.

• Eurasia range29.0 pt, below average
• Prior sweepSwept high
• Open vs Eurasia EQBelow EQ
• Four-way24 / 41 / 29 / 6
• First sweep▲ 37% · ▼ 63%
• P(high taken)53% → taken 08:30
• P(low taken)70% → taken 10:15
• Samplen 718, High

Thursday 1 October

Neither level touched, the low missed by 1.0 point on the 11:10 bar, and the third inside session of the gold record

First sweep ✗ by construction · modal branch ✗ · inside, rated 29%

48 / 19 / 4 / 29, first sweep 70 / 30, out of 573 sessions. Eurasia printed 44.4 points, above average, and had swept its predecessor's high. Price opened at 4212.4 above Eurasia EQ, the high 10.4 points above it and the low 34.0 below. The Eurasia high was the 01:35 bar and the low the 04:45 bar.

The session high of 4218.0 came on the 08:45 bar and stopped 4.8 points under 4222.8. Price then fell for an hour and twenty-five minutes to 4181.0 on the 10:10 bar, 2.6 points short of the low, bounced to 4204.8 on the 10:35 bar and came down again: the 11:10 bar printed 4179.4, 1.0 point above 4178.4. The last three bars lifted off it and the session closed at 4196.4. Neither level was reached, so there is no first sweep, and the 70% call scores as a miss by construction.

The high at 52% did not go and the low at 23% did not go either. The modal branch, high only at 48%, missed, and the 29% inside share landed. This is the third inside session in forty gold sessions, after 7 and 24 September. These four shares have now been drawn five times, on 13 August, 27 August, 22 September, 25 September and today, more than any other cell on this record: low only three times, high only once and inside once.

• Eurasia range44.4 pt, above average
• Prior sweepSwept high
• Open vs Eurasia EQAbove EQ
• Four-way48 / 19 / 4 / 29
• First sweep▲ 70% · ▼ 30%
• P(high taken)52% → not taken
• P(low taken)23% → not taken
• Samplen 573, High

Friday 2 October

The high on the 08:30 bar against a 62% low-first call, the low on the 10:50 bar, and both sides on a 14% rating

First sweep ✗ · modal branch ✗ · both sides, rated 14%🔴 08:30 Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate

29 / 45 / 14 / 12, first sweep 38 / 62, out of 649 sessions. The Eurasia range was 33.8 points, below average, and had swept its predecessor's high. Price opened at 4211.5, below Eurasia EQ by 0.7 of a point, with the high 17.6 points above and the low 16.2 below. The Eurasia high was the 02:00 bar and the low the 06:20 bar.

The first six bars stayed between 4204.2 and 4218.1. The 08:30 bar then ran from 4215.0 to 4259.0, crossing 4229.1 inside itself and printing the session high, 29.9 points through against a median up-penetration of 18.6. The 09:00 bar came back to 4255.9 and from there price fell: back inside the range on the 09:10 bar, one last push above the level on the 09:35 and 09:40 bars, then through 4195.3 on the 10:50 bar, which ran from 4200.5 to 4186.8. The session low was 4161.5 on the last bar, 33.8 points through against a median down-penetration of 18.5, and the close was 4171.1. From top to bottom the morning covered 97.5 points.

The high at 43% went and the low at 59% went too, so the both-sides branch, rated 14%, landed, the modal branch, low only at 45%, missed, and the first sweep went to the high against a 62% low-first call. These four shares had been drawn three times before, on 26 August, 8 September and 18 September, and all three gave low only with the low first. This is the first draw of the cell to take the high at all.

• Eurasia range33.8 pt, below average
• Prior sweepSwept high
• Open vs Eurasia EQBelow EQ
• Four-way29 / 45 / 14 / 12
• First sweep▲ 38% · ▼ 62%
• P(high taken)43% → taken 08:30
• P(low taken)59% → taken 10:50
• Samplen 649, High

What the week actually showed

• Two first sweeps from five and two modal branches from five. The 2 of 5 first sweeps is the joint lowest on the record, level with w/c 24 August, and 2 of 5 modal branches is shared with four earlier weeks. Over eight weeks the record now reads 28 of 40 first sweeps and 22 of 40 modal branches. The two mornings with the largest modal shares this week, Monday at 73% and Tuesday at 71%, landed both the modal branch and the first sweep; the three that missed had modal shares of 41%, 48% and 45%. One week cannot say whether that pattern holds, and five draws say nothing about the frequencies.
• Three of the five mornings landed on a branch the modal has never named in forty draws. Wednesday and Friday took both sides and Thursday stayed inside. In all forty draws so far the modal branch has been one of the two exclusive branches, high only twenty-two times and low only eighteen, so a both-sides or inside morning scores as a modal miss by construction. Both sides has now landed ten times in forty, 25%, and inside three times, about 8%. Averaged over all forty draws, every draw counted once, the tables rated both sides at about 14% and inside at about 14%, so both sides has come up more often than rated and inside less often. Those gaps are facts about which cells have been drawn and how they went, and forty sessions are too few to read them as anything more.
• Wednesday and Friday both took the Eurasia high on the 08:30 bar, against first-sweep calls of 63% and 62% for the low. Both bars were wide, 32.4 points on Wednesday and 44.0 on Friday, each crossing the level inside itself and printing the session high. Both mornings then fell back through the whole range and took the Eurasia low as well, at 10:15 and 10:50. Those two mornings missed both the first sweep and the modal branch; both marginals went on each day, 53% and 70% on Wednesday, 43% and 59% on Friday.
• The crossings ran deeper this week. Four of the six levels taken went further than the median penetration the table prints for that side: Monday's low by 29.6 against 19.3, Wednesday's low by 23.2 against 20.1, Friday's high by 29.9 against 18.6 and Friday's low by 33.8 against 18.5. Tuesday's high went 14.0 against 20.6 and Wednesday's high 17.3 against 20.3. Last week none of the five went that far. The taken tick is binary by design; the penetration next to it is the part that says how far price actually went.
• Thursday missed the low by 1.0 point, and the miss changed neither the modal nor the first-sweep score. Had the 11:10 bar traded through 4178.4 the morning would have scored low only, a branch rated 19%: the modal branch, high only, would still have missed, and so would the 70% first-sweep-high call. It did decide the levels-taken count, 6 rather than 7 of 10, and made Thursday the record's third inside session rather than a low-only morning. Two smaller near things: Tuesday's 09:30 bar stopped 0.9 of a point under the high before the 09:35 bar crossed it, and Wednesday's 10:00 bar printed the Eurasia low exactly, 4205.1, fifteen minutes before the 10:15 bar traded through it.
• All five cells this week had been drawn before on this record. Monday's 7 / 73 / 4 / 16 on 660 sessions and Tuesday's 71 / 11 / 14 / 4 on 603 have each given the same exclusive branch on all three of their draws, low only and high only. Wednesday's 24 / 41 / 29 / 6 has given both sides on both of its draws. Friday's 29 / 45 / 14 / 12 had given low only three times before it gave both sides. Thursday's 48 / 19 / 4 / 29 on 573 sessions is now the only cell on this record drawn five times: low only three times, high only once, inside once. A handful of draws cannot say whether a cell is right or wrong; the repeats are recorded because a reader can check them against the earlier weeks.
• Levels went six of ten against a mean stated 50%. The six that went carried 43, 53, 59, 70, 77 and 85 percent; the four that did not carried 11, 23, 25 and 52. Every level rated above 52% went, and Friday's 43% high went while Thursday's 52% high did not. Over forty sessions the record is 47 of 80 against a mean stated 50%, a realised 59%, the same nine point gap as last week's running total. That gap is the kind of thing this record exists to keep watching, and it is not read here as a finding.