NY AM, week commencing Monday 28 September 2026

At a glance

Three scores, because the indicator makes three separable claims.

The four share columns are the indicator's own figures, read off the status table at the session open, and they sum to 100 on every row. Gold marks the branch the tables rated highest. The London column is a whole number because the study rounds it, half up. The exact ranges are 114.25, 144.50, 195.75, 384.75 and 195.25 points, so the two opening distances quoted in each session below sum to the exact range and can sit up to half a point away from the figure in this column: Tuesday's 23.00 under and 121.50 above make 144.50, shown here as 145. London printed below its own average range on Monday and Tuesday and above it on the other three days; Thursday's 385 points is the widest prior session in the forty-five this record has drawn. Red folder USD releases fell inside the session on two days this week, both at 08:30 ET, an hour in: Core PCE and Final GDP on Wednesday and non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate on Friday. On both days the London high was taken on the 08:30 bar. Both are marked against the day. No London level was taken on the 07:30 opening bar this week. Times are the 5-minute bar in which the level was crossed, and every time on this page is read off the 5-minute bar data rather than off the pictures.

Two tables drawn twice each, and one of them missed on both counts

The branch the tables rated highest happened on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, and the side called went first on every day but Wednesday. Both scores sit close to the record's running rates, which now stand at twenty-five and thirty-five from forty-five. Four things are worth saying about how the week got there.

Wednesday is the miss on both counts. The table put 62% on the low going first and rated low only the favourite at 45%. Price did move towards the low first, to 19.75 points above it on the 08:15 bar, and then the 08:30 bar ran 177.75 points and crossed the London high instead. The branch that landed was high only at 24%, the table's third-rated of four, and the only high only in the bin's six draws. Net of its 6% inside share, a 62% call is wrong about four times in ten by its own numbers, and this was one of them.

Monday and Tuesday drew the same table as the Friday before, three sessions running. All three read 52 / 8 / 38 / 2 on 766 sessions with 88% on the high going first, all three opened above EQ, and all three took the high first: Friday in the second bar, Monday in the seventh, Tuesday in the fourth. Friday and Monday went on to take the low as well; Tuesday stopped 7.50 points short of it on the last bar of the session. Over six draws this bin has taken the high first every time and gone both sides four times, against a 38% share for that branch and a 52% favourite of high only.

Wednesday and Thursday drew the same table on consecutive days and answered it in opposite directions. Both read 24 / 45 / 25 / 6 on 406 sessions with 62% on the low going first, and both opened below EQ. Wednesday went high only, the 24% branch; Thursday went low only, the 45% favourite, after a London of 385 points. Identical forecasts resolving differently is what a table of shares says will happen. Two draws say nothing about which share is off, if either is.

By the table's own numbers this was an ordinary week. The modal branches were rated 52, 52, 45, 45 and 53 percent; if each landed at exactly that rate, three or more from five has a probability of about 49%. The first-sweep calls were rated 88, 88, 62, 62 and 74, but those shares are conditional on a level being taken, and an inside session scores as a first-sweep miss. Netting out each table's inside share gives a mean of about 72%, and four or more from five a probability of about 57%, or 63% if no session stays inside. Five mornings on one instrument are not independent draws, so treat both figures as rough. The indicator's own hit-rate row sat at 50 to 52% against a 56% expectation all week, on 263 to 275 setups loaded, within a point of where it sat the week before.

The five NY AM sessions

Left, the session opening at 07:30. Right, the same chart at 11:30 with the outcome latched.

Monday 28 September

Through the high at 08:00, 110 points beyond it at 09:30, then 402.75 points down and through the low

First sweep ✓ · both sides, the 38% branch

The fifth draw of 52 / 8 / 38 / 2 from 766 sessions, the table Friday 25 September drew and the one Tuesday would draw again the next day. London had run 114 points, below its own average, and price opened at 30641.50, 7.75 points under the London high and 106.50 above the low, above EQ. First sweep 88% to the high.

The opening bar stopped 4.75 points short of the high and the 07:45 bar a quarter of a point short. The 08:00 bar, the seventh, crossed it, and price went on to a session high of 30759.25 on the 09:30 bar, 110.00 points through against a median up penetration of 94. That was the turn. Price fell 402.75 points from it, crossed the London low on the 10:10 bar and reached 30356.50 on the 10:45 bar, 178.50 points through against a median down penetration of 102. The session closed at 30494.50, 40.50 points below the low.

First sweep correct at 88% and both marginals taken, the 90% high and the 46% low. The branch was both sides at 38% against a 52% high-only favourite, a modal miss, and the fourth both-sides result in a row from this table, after 21 August, 15 and 25 September. With Tuesday, six draws of the bin read four both sides and two high only, and its 8% low-only branch has not appeared.

• London range114 pt, below average
• Prior sweepSwept low
• Open vs London EQAbove EQ
• Four-way52 / 8 / 38 / 2
• First sweep▲ 88% · ▼ 12%
• P(high taken)90% → taken 08:00
• P(low taken)46% → taken 10:10
• Session high30759.25, 110.00 pt through
• Session low30356.50, 178.50 pt through
• Samplen 766, High

Tuesday 29 September

Through the high in the fourth bar, and 7.50 points short of the low on the last

First sweep ✓ · high only, the 52% favourite ✓

The sixth draw of 52 / 8 / 38 / 2 from 766 sessions, the third session running on this table after Friday 25 and Monday 28 September. London had run 145 points, 144.50 exactly, below its own average, and price opened at 30646.00, 23.00 points under the London high and 121.50 above the low, above EQ. First sweep 88% to the high.

The 07:35 and 07:40 bars both stopped 2.25 points short of the high, and the 07:45 bar, the fourth, crossed it. The session high came on the 09:30 bar at 30725.25, 56.25 points through against a median up penetration of 98, and that bar then traded 123.25 points down to 30602.00, back inside the range. Price traded above the high again on every bar from 10:15 to 10:55, and from the 10:55 bar to the 11:25 bar it fell 174.50 points, to a session low of 30532.00 on the 11:25 bar, the last of the window, 7.50 points above the London low. The close at 30554.50 was inside the range.

First sweep correct at 88% and the modal branch landed, high only at 52%, the 90% high taken and the 46% low not. Two sessions on the same table, a day apart, both opened above EQ, took the high early and turned on the 09:30 bar; Monday went on through the low and Tuesday stopped 7.50 points short of it. Six draws of this bin now read four both sides and two high only, and the high went first on all six.

• London range145 pt, below average
• Prior sweepSwept high
• Open vs London EQAbove EQ
• Four-way52 / 8 / 38 / 2
• First sweep▲ 88% · ▼ 12%
• P(high taken)90% → taken 07:45
• P(low taken)46% → not taken, by 7.50 pt
• Session high30725.25, 56.25 pt through
• Session low30532.00, 7.50 pt short
• Samplen 766, High

Wednesday 30 September

Within 19.75 points of the low at 08:15, then through the high on the 08:30 bar and 185.50 points beyond it

First sweep ✗ · high only, the 24% branch🔴 Core PCE + GDP · 08:30 ET

The fifth draw of 24 / 45 / 25 / 6 from 406 sessions, and the table Thursday would draw again the next day. London had run 196 points, above its own average, and price opened at 30575.00, below EQ, 63.25 points above the London low and 132.50 under the high. First sweep 62% to the low, with low only the favourite at 45%.

Price moved towards the low first. The session low printed on the 08:15 bar at 30531.50, 43.50 points under the open and 19.75 points above the London low. Three bars later the 08:30 bar ran from 30601.50 to 30779.25, 177.75 points in five minutes, and crossed the London high on the way. Price dipped back inside the range more than once in the next hour, then climbed to a session high of 30893.00 on the 10:05 bar, 185.50 points through against a median up penetration of 98, and closed at 30855.50, 148.00 points above the level.

This is the week's miss on both counts. The first sweep went to the high against a 62% call for the low, and the branch was high only at 24%, the table's third-rated of four, with the 49% high taken and the 70% low not. It is the only high only this bin has produced: with Thursday, its six draws read three low onlys, two both sides and one high only, against a stated 45 / 25 / 24. Net of its 6% inside share, a 62% call is wrong about four times in ten by its own numbers, and this was one of them.

• London range196 pt, above average
• Prior sweepSwept low
• Open vs London EQBelow EQ
• Four-way24 / 45 / 25 / 6
• First sweep▲ 38% · ▼ 62%
• P(high taken)49% → taken 08:30
• P(low taken)70% → not taken, by 19.75 pt
• Session high30893.00, 185.50 pt through
• Session low30531.50, 19.75 pt short
• Samplen 406, High

Thursday 1 October

Wednesday's table again after a 385-point London: 232.75 short of the high, through the low at 09:30

First sweep ✓ · low only, the 45% favourite ✓

The sixth draw of 24 / 45 / 25 / 6 from 406 sessions, Wednesday's table again, served this time after a London of 385 points, 384.75 exactly, the widest prior session in the forty-five this record has drawn and six points wider than 1 September's 379. Its sweep column read Inside, for the fifth time in the record. Price opened at 30837.75, below EQ, 80.75 points above the London low and 304.00 under the high. First sweep 62% to the low.

Price went up first, to a session high of 30909.00 on the 07:50 bar, still 232.75 points under the London high, and then drifted down over the next hour and a half to 30791.25 on the 09:25 bar. The 09:30 bar traded from 30856.25 to 30734.25 and crossed the London low. The next five bars all traded back above the level, and from the 10:00 bar on no bar reached it again. The session low came on the 11:10 bar at 30531.50, 225.50 points through against a median down penetration of 106, the same price as Wednesday's session low, and the session closed at 30634.00, 123.00 points below the level.

First sweep correct at 62% and the modal branch landed, low only at 45%, the 70% low taken and the 49% high not. Wednesday and Thursday drew the same four numbers on consecutive days, both from below EQ, and answered them in opposite directions: Wednesday high only, the 24% branch, and Thursday low only, the favourite. Six draws of this bin now read three low onlys, two both sides and one high only.

• London range385 pt, above average
• Prior sweepInside
• Open vs London EQBelow EQ
• Four-way24 / 45 / 25 / 6
• First sweep▲ 38% · ▼ 62%
• P(high taken)49% → not taken, by 232.75 pt
• P(low taken)70% → taken 09:30
• Session high30909.00, 232.75 pt short
• Session low30531.50, 225.50 pt through
• Samplen 406, High

Friday 2 October

Down 71 points first, through the high on the 08:30 bar, 247 points beyond it by 10:25

First sweep ✓ · high only, the 53% favourite ✓🔴 Non-farm payrolls · 08:30 ET

The fifth draw of 53 / 20 / 24 / 3 from 479 sessions, the table that drew on 4, 11, 17 and 21 September. London had run 195 points, above its own average, and price opened at 30984.25, 51.50 points under the London high and 143.75 above the low, above EQ. First sweep 74% to the high.

Price went down first, to a session low of 30913.25 on the 07:55 bar, 71.00 points under the open and 72.75 points above the London low. The 08:30 bar ran from 30984.75 to 31120.00, 135.25 points, and crossed the London high on the way, and no bar from 08:35 to 11:15 traded back below it. The session high came on the 10:25 bar at 31282.75, 247.00 points through against a median up penetration of 100. From the 10:25 high to the 11:25 bar it gave back 294.75 points: the 11:20 and 11:25 bars traded back inside the range, to 30988.00, and the session closed at 31063.50, 27.75 points above the level.

First sweep correct at 74% and the modal branch landed, high only at 53%, the 77% high taken and the 44% low not. Five draws of this bin now read three high onlys, the last three in a row, and two both sides, against a stated 53 / 24.

• London range195 pt, above average
• Prior sweepSwept high
• Open vs London EQAbove EQ
• Four-way53 / 20 / 24 / 3
• First sweep▲ 74% · ▼ 26%
• P(high taken)77% → taken 08:30
• P(low taken)44% → not taken, by 72.75 pt
• Session high31282.75, 247.00 pt through
• Session low30913.25, 72.75 pt short
• Samplen 479, High

The same forecast, more than once

Across the forty-five sessions published so far, eight context bins have each come up more than once, and forty-four of the forty-five sessions sit in one of them. The only session still on its own is Monday 10 August. Same context bin, same lookup, same numbers to the percentage point, on different days with different London ranges and different price levels. Every one of this week's five forecasts was a repeat, for the fourth week running, and the week drew two tables twice each.

Two things follow, and they matter more than this week's score.

The forecast is a lookup, not a fit. Nothing about Thursday was used to produce Thursday's numbers. They are the numbers Wednesday got the day before, and the numbers four earlier sessions got, because all six landed in the same measured bin, on London ranges from 182 to 385 points and after London sweep labels of Swept high, Swept low and Inside. Three of the six went low only, two both sides and one high only.

Identical forecasts resolving differently is the system working, not failing. Every one of the eight repeated bins has now produced more than one outcome. The 406 bin produced its first high only on Wednesday, after four draws without one, and went back to low only the next day. The 766 bin has drawn six times, has had the high first on all six, and has gone both sides on four of them against a 38% share for that branch and a 52% favourite of high only. Six draws cannot tell you whether 52 is the right number, and neither can forty-five sessions; what they can show is whether the table keeps returning the same answer for the same context bin, which it does.

What this week actually shows

Five things, from a week that scored about where the record already sits on all three claims.

1. Three modal branches from five, and the record moves to twenty-five from forty-five. The nine weeks now read three, two, two, three, three, two, three, four and three from five. At the shares printed this week, three or more was roughly an even-money outcome, so the score says little in either direction.
2. Four first sweeps from five, and the record moves to thirty-five from forty-five. The mean stated confidence across the five calls was 75%, from Wednesday's and Thursday's 62% to Monday's and Tuesday's 88%. The miss was Wednesday's, a 62% call on the low.
3. The high was taken on four of the five days, the low on two, the same split as the week before. Three sessions finished high only, one low only and one both sides. The four levels not taken were rated 46, 70, 49 and 44 percent, and the six taken were rated 90, 46, 90, 49, 70 and 77. Wednesday's 70% low was the highest-rated level left alone, and the same 70% low went the next day.
4. Six of ten levels taken, against a mean stated 63%. A realised 60%, the fourth week running at six. Across the record sixty-one of ninety levels have been taken against a mean stated 66%, a realised 68%. Ninety level events cannot close that gap in either direction.
5. Forty-five sessions settle nothing, and the indicator's own row is still behind. The realised versus expected row on the status table read 50 to 52% against 56% expected across the week, on 263 to 275 setups loaded. The record has a shape, not a verdict.