Strategies

We wrote the threshold down on 17 October 2026, before any tracking began. Any change goes in a new dated version, the old one is kept, and the change is stated on this page.

Changes so far. 17 October: the regime route (2 below), added before any tracking began. 17 October: on the regime route the 40-day check looks only at the recent 40-day results, and every strategy is tracked on its own, with no links to our other strategies; made after one tracker had started, so that tracker was replaced and its record starts again from the new one. 18 October: the small-target option (3 below), after four trackers had started; it applies only to a strategy declared before its own tracking began, which so far is one. 18 October: the two combined books are measured against each trade's own risk instead of a fixed dollar unit; Delta moved to the regime route and its forward record started again. 18 October: the 40-day check grades on the share of the last 60 trading days with a positive 40-day total (more than 75% HEALTHY, 50% to 75% GOOD, under 50% CONCERN; PAUSE for a sharp drop now), replacing an earlier steadiness rule. 20 October: before a standard-route strategy is offered it must also beat every strategy we already offer on the same market, on the Sharpe ratio of its daily results in R over the same dates; one that is eligible and meets test 5 but not this comparison is shown as benched. On the regime route the same comparison is shown, not applied. Made after the first forward trades and before any strategy could reach a review. 25 October: the list is ordered by forward results (a strategy's forward net R in its own standard deviations, counted from 20 trading days and 10 trades) instead of by the share of conditions met, which becomes the first tie-break; "Recent 40 days" moves to forward results once a strategy has 40 forward trading days. Made after the first forward trades. It changes the order of the list only, not what any strategy must meet. 26 October: our 40-day check on each strategy's page and in "Recent 40 days" is graded every day on the backtest and forward-tracked trades together, with the same rules as the pages of the strategies we offer, instead of on the backtest alone until enough forward trades exist; weekdays between the end of a backtest and the start of tracking count as zero. Made after the first forward trades. It changes what is shown, not the order of the list or what any strategy must meet. 29 October: each strategy's page and "Recent 40 days" also show its form, where today's 40-day total sits against its own standard deviation (Strong run, Positive, Soft patch, Weak run), how many of the 40 days were forward-tracked, and a note when it is within one standard deviation of its pause line. Made after the first forward trades. It changes what is shown, not the grade, the order of the list or what any strategy must meet. 29 October: the 20 October comparison with the strategies we already offer is withdrawn on both routes; each strategy is judged on its own results, and none is shown as benched. Made after the first forward trades; while it applied, two of the six standard-route strategies were ahead of the strategy we offer on their market and four were behind, so withdrawing it removes a bar four strategies had not met. No strategy had reached a review.

1. Standard route. Its 3-year backtest meets tests 1 to 4 of the five tests, and its forward-tracked trades then meet the forward gates below. Test 5, the drawdown test, is shown as a target here. Before a strategy is offered it must also meet test 5.
2. Regime route. For a strategy we picked because of how it trades in recent market conditions, declared before its tracking began. Its backtest is shown but not tested; it qualifies on its forward-tracked trades alone, with a higher bar per trade and one extra check.
3. Small-target strategies. A strategy that risks several times its target can be declared, before its tracking began, to have test 1 judged on two measures together: at least +0.10 per trade in units of its target, and costs at most a third of its gross result per trade. Both its figures and the usual one are shown.